Regional and global hydrology and water resources issues: The role of international and national programs

This paper presents an overview of water resources issues in the context of world population growth, climate change, and variability, and provides examples of how these issues affect local and regional water policy concerns. Also discussed is the associated research of the international scientific community in regard to physically-based modeling of the hydrological cycle, with special focus on the Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX) Programme. The critical role of precipitation measurements for climate model accuracy is emphasized, with a review of several satellite methods and strategies for improving precipitation measurements. Finally, the impact of semiarid regions on global hydrologic issues is underscored with a review of research conducted by SAHRA, the National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center dedicated to Sustainability of semi-Add Hydrology and Riparian Areas

Operational snow modeling: Addressing the challenges of an energy balance model for National Weather Service forecasts

Prediction of snowmelt has become a critical issue in much of the western United States given the increasing demand for water supply, changing snow cover patterns, and the subsequent requirement of optimal reservoir operation. The increasing importance of hydrologic predictions necessitates that traditional forecasting systems be re-evaluated periodically to assure continued evolution of the operational systems given scientific advancements in hydrology. The National Weather Service (NWS) SNOW17, a conceptually based model used for operational prediction of snowmelt, has been relatively unchanged for decades. In this study, the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer (SAST) model, which employs the energy balance method, is evaluated against the SNOW17 for the simulation of seasonal snowpack (both accumulation and melt) and basin discharge. We investigate model performance over a 13-year period using data from two basins within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed located in southwestern Idaho. Both models are coupled to the NWS runoff model [SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SACSMA)] to simulate basin streamflow. Results indicate that while in many years simulated snowpack and streamflow are similar between the two modeling systems, the SAST more often overestimates SWE during the spring due to a lack of mid-winter melt in the model. The SAST also had more rapid spring melt rates than the SNOW17, leading to larger errors in the timing and amount of discharge on average. In general, the simpler SNOW17 performed consistently well, and in several years, better than, the SAST model. Input requirements and related uncertainties, and to a lesser extent calibration, are likely to be primary factors affecting the implementation of an energy balance model in operational streamflow prediction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Snow model verification using ensemble prediction and operational benchmarks

Hydrologic model evaluations have traditionally focused on measuring how closely the model can simulate various characteristics of historical observations. Although advancing hydrologic forecasting is an often-stated goal of numerous modeling studies, testing in a forecasting mode is seldom undertaken, limiting information derived from these analyses. One can overcome this limitation through generation, and subsequent analysis, of ensemble hindcasts. In this study, long-range ensemble hindcasts are generated for the available period of record for a basin in southwestern Idaho for the purpose of evaluating the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer (SAST) model against the current operational benchmark, the National Weather Service's (NWS) snow accumulation and ablation model SNOW17. Both snow models were coupled with the NWS operational rainfall runoff model and ensembles of seasonal discharge and weekly snow water equivalent (SWE) were evaluated. Ensemble predictions from both the SAST and SNOW17 models were better than climatology forecasts, for the period studied. In most cases, the accuracy of the SAST-generated predictions was similar to the SNOW17-generated predictions, except during periods of significant melting. Differences in model performance are partially attributed to initial condition errors. After updating the SWE state in the snow models with the observed SWE, the forecasts were improved during the first 2-4 weeks of the forecast window and the skills were essentially equal in both forecasting systems for the study watershed. Climate dominated the forecast uncertainty in the latter part of the forecast window while initial conditions controlled the forecast skill in the first 3-4 weeks of the forecast. The use of hindcasting in the snow model analysis revealed that, given the dominance of the initial conditions on forecast skill, streamflow predictions will be most improved through the use of state updating. © 2008 American Meteorological Society

Parameter sensitivity analysis for different complexity land surface models using multicriteria methods

A multicriteria algorithm, the MultiObjective Generalized Sensitivity Analysis (MOGSA), was used to investigate the parameter sensitivity of five different land surface models with increasing levels of complexity in the physical representation of the vegetation (BUCKET, CHASM, BATS 1, Noah, and BATS 2) at five different sites representing crop land/ pasture, grassland, rain forest, cropland, and semidesert areas. The methodology allows for the inclusion of parameter interaction and does not require assumptions of independence between parameters, while at the same time allowing for the ranking of several single-criterion and a global multicriteria sensitivity indices. The analysis required on the order of 50 thousand model runs. The results confirm that parameters with similar "physical meaning" across different model structures behave in different ways depending on the model and the locations. It is also shown that after a certain level an increase in model structure complexity does not necessarily lead to better parameter identifiability, i.e., higher sensitivity, and that a certain level of overparameterization is observed. For the case of the BATS 1 and BATS 2 models, with essentially the same model structure but a more sophisticated vegetation model, paradoxically, the effect on parameter sensitivity is mainly reflected in the sensitivity of the soil-related parameter. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union

Social Networks among Elderly Women: Implications for Health Education Practice

The general aim of the present study was to examine and help clarify the properties of the distinctions between social networks and social support, their relationship to health status, and their impli cations for health education practice. More specifically, a secondary data analysis was conducted with 130 white women, community resi dents, between the ages of 60 and 68, which examined the relationship between psychological well-being and social network characteristics. These characteristics are categorized along three broad dimensions: structure—links in the overall network (size and density); interaction— nature of the linkages themselves (frequency, homogeneity, content, reciprocity, intensity, and dispersion); and functions which networks provide (affective support and instrumental support). A combination was made and relative strength investigated of several network char acteristics representative of the quality of interactions (i. e., reciprocal affective support, intensity, and affective support) and those repre senting the quantity of interactions (i.e., size, density, and frequency).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67277/2/10.1177_109019818301000304.pd

Computational Analysis and Experimental Validation of Gene Predictions in Toxoplasma gondii

Toxoplasma gondii is an obligate intracellular protozoan that infects 20 to 90% of the population. It can cause both acute and chronic infections, many of which are asymptomatic, and, in immunocompromised hosts, can cause fatal infection due to reactivation from an asymptomatic chronic infection. An essential step towards understanding molecular mechanisms controlling transitions between the various life stages and identifying candidate drug targets is to accurately characterize the T. gondii proteome.We have explored the proteome of T. gondii tachyzoites with high throughput proteomics experiments and by comparison to publicly available cDNA sequence data. Mass spectrometry analysis validated 2,477 gene coding regions with 6,438 possible alternative gene predictions; approximately one third of the T. gondii proteome. The proteomics survey identified 609 proteins that are unique to Toxoplasma as compared to any known species including other Apicomplexan. Computational analysis identified 787 cases of possible gene duplication events and located at least 6,089 gene coding regions. Commonly used gene prediction algorithms produce very disparate sets of protein sequences, with pairwise overlaps ranging from 1.4% to 12%. Through this experimental and computational exercise we benchmarked gene prediction methods and observed false negative rates of 31 to 43%.This study not only provides the largest proteomics exploration of the T. gondii proteome, but illustrates how high throughput proteomics experiments can elucidate correct gene structures in genomes

The re-identification risk of Canadians from longitudinal demographics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The public is less willing to allow their personal health information to be disclosed for research purposes if they do not trust researchers and how researchers manage their data. However, the public is more comfortable with their data being used for research if the risk of re-identification is low. There are few studies on the risk of re-identification of Canadians from their basic demographics, and no studies on their risk from their longitudinal data. Our objective was to estimate the risk of re-identification from the basic cross-sectional and longitudinal demographics of Canadians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Uniqueness is a common measure of re-identification risk. Demographic data on a 25% random sample of the population of Montreal were analyzed to estimate population uniqueness on postal code, date of birth, and gender as well as their generalizations, for periods ranging from 1 year to 11 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Almost 98% of the population was unique on full postal code, date of birth and gender: these three variables are effectively a unique identifier for Montrealers. Uniqueness increased for longitudinal data. Considerable generalization was required to reach acceptably low uniqueness levels, especially for longitudinal data. Detailed guidelines and disclosure policies on how to ensure that the re-identification risk is low are provided.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A large percentage of Montreal residents are unique on basic demographics. For non-longitudinal data sets, the three character postal code, gender, and month/year of birth represent sufficiently low re-identification risk. Data custodians need to generalize their demographic information further for longitudinal data sets.</p

Quantitative Multicolor Super-Resolution Microscopy Reveals Tetherin HIV-1 Interaction

Virus assembly and interaction with host-cell proteins occur at length scales below the diffraction limit of visible light. Novel super-resolution microscopy techniques achieve nanometer resolution of fluorescently labeled molecules. The cellular restriction factor tetherin (also known as CD317, BST-2 or HM1.24) inhibits the release of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) through direct incorporation into viral membranes and is counteracted by the HIV-1 protein Vpu. For super-resolution analysis of HIV-1 and tetherin interactions, we established fluorescence labeling of HIV-1 proteins and tetherin that preserved HIV-1 particle formation and Vpu-dependent restriction, respectively. Multicolor super-resolution microscopy revealed important structural features of individual HIV-1 virions, virus assembly sites and their interaction with tetherin at the plasma membrane. Tetherin localization to micro-domains was dependent on both tetherin membrane anchors. Tetherin clusters containing on average 4 to 7 tetherin dimers were visualized at HIV-1 assembly sites. Combined biochemical and super-resolution analysis revealed that extended tetherin dimers incorporate both N-termini into assembling virus particles and restrict HIV-1 release. Neither tetherin domains nor HIV-1 assembly sites showed enrichment of the raft marker GM1. Together, our super-resolution microscopy analysis of HIV-1 interactions with tetherin provides new insights into the mechanism of tetherin-mediated HIV-1 restriction and paves the way for future studies of virus-host interactions